AI Job Risk · REFERENCE

AI Job Risk Index

Which roles are most exposed to AI automation — and which are protected

What Is the AI Job Risk Index?

The AI Job Risk Index ranks professional roles by their exposure to AI automation. Exposure is determined not by job title, but by task composition — the specific activities that fill a person’s workday.

Roles built around repetitive information processing, reporting, and tool operation are highly exposed. Roles built around judgment, escalation, trade-off management, and stakeholder accountability are protected.

How Exposure Is Measured

Factor Weight Description
Task repetitiveness 30% How much of the role involves repeatable, rules-based work
Judgment requirement 25% Whether decisions require context, trade-offs, or accountability
Information vs. decision work 20% Ratio of information processing to decision-making
Stakeholder dependency 15% Whether the role requires managing humans, not just data
Tool dependency 10% Whether the role exists only because of a specific tool

Risk Levels

Level Score Description
High exposure 70-100 Most tasks can be automated within 2-3 years
Moderate exposure 40-69 Some tasks automated, role will transform significantly
Low exposure 0-39 Core value comes from judgment, context, and accountability

Role Exposure Examples

Role Exposure Why
Data entry specialist 95 Entirely repetitive information processing
Report builder 85 Summarizing data into standard formats
Junior analyst 75 Pulling data, building charts, answering predefined questions
Project coordinator 65 Scheduling, status tracking, routing information
Senior analyst 45 Some judgment work, but still tool-dependent
Operations manager 30 Owns escalation, trade-offs, stakeholder management
Risk director 20 Owns decisions under uncertainty, accountability

What Makes a Role Protected

Protected roles share these characteristics:

  • Decision ownership — they decide, not just inform
  • Escalation authority — they can stop, redirect, or accelerate
  • Context dependency — their value comes from understanding situations, not processing data
  • Accountability — they own outcomes, not outputs
  • Ambiguity tolerance — they operate where rules don’t exist yet

What Makes a Role Exposed

Exposed roles share these characteristics:

  • Built around a single tool or platform
  • Value comes from speed of execution, not quality of judgment
  • Output is standardized and repeatable
  • No decision authority — they inform, they don’t decide
  • Could be described as “human middleware” between systems

How to Use This Index

  1. List your daily tasks for one week
  2. Categorize each task: information processing, decision-making, stakeholder management, or tool operation
  3. Calculate the ratio — if >60% is information processing or tool operation, you’re exposed
  4. Identify which tasks require judgment that AI cannot replicate
  5. Build your career around those judgment tasks